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Medical Physics

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Medical Physics's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Virtual Spectral Decomposition with Dendritic Binary Gating Detects Pancreatic Cancer Tissue Transformation on Standard CT: Multi-Institutional Validation Across Three Independent Datasets with a 3.8-Year Pre-Diagnostic Detection Window

Chandra, S.

2026-04-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350418 medRxiv
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Background. Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has a five-year survival rate of approximately 12%, largely because it is typically diagnosed at an advanced stage. CT-based computational methods for early detection exist but rely on black-box deep learning or large texture feature sets without tissue-specific interpretability. Methods. We developed Virtual Spectral Decomposition (VSD), which applies six parameterized sigmoid functions S(HU) = 1/(1+exp(-alpha x (HU - mu))) to standard portal-venous CT, decomposing each pixel into tissue-specific response channels for fat (mu=-60), fluid (mu=10), parenchyma (mu=45), stroma (mu=75), vascular (mu=130), and calcification (mu=250). Dendritic Binary Gating identifies structural content per channel using morphological filtering, enabling co-firing analysis and lone firer identification. A 25-feature signature was extracted per patient. Three independent datasets were analyzed: NIH Pancreas-CT (n=78 healthy), Medical Segmentation Decathlon Task07 (n=281 PDAC, paired tumor/adjacent tissue), and CPTAC-PDA from The Cancer Imaging Archive (n=82, multi-institutional, with DICOM time point tags). The same six sigmoid parameters were used across all datasets without retraining. Results. VSD achieved AUC 0.943 for field effect detection (healthy vs cancer-adjacent parenchyma) and AUC 0.931 for patient-stratified tumor specification on MSD. On CPTAC-PDA, VSD achieved AUC 0.961 (6 features) and 0.979 (25 features) for distinguishing healthy from cancer-bearing pancreas on scans obtained prior to pathological diagnosis. All significant features replicated across datasets in the same direction: z_fat (d=-2.10, p=3.5e-27), z_fluid (d=-2.76, p=2.4e-38), fire_fat (d=+2.18, p=1.2e-28). Critically, VSD severity did not correlate with days-from-diagnosis (r=-0.008, p=0.944) across a range of day -1394 to day +249. Patient C3N-01375, scanned 3.8 years before pathological diagnosis, had VSD severity 1.87, well above the healthy mean of 0.94 +/- 0.33. The tissue transformation signature was temporally stable, indicating an early, persistent tissue state rather than a progressively worsening process. Conclusions. VSD with Dendritic Binary Gating detects a stable pancreatic tissue composition signature on standard CT that is present years before clinical diagnosis, validated across three independent datasets without parameter adjustment. The six sigmoid channels map to biologically meaningful tissue components through a fully transparent interpretability chain. The temporal stability of the signal implies a detection window of 3-7 years, consistent with known PanIN-3 microenvironment transformation timelines. VSD functions as a single-scan screening tool applicable to any abdominal CT performed during the pre-clinical window.

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Multi-task deep learning integrating pretreatment MRI and whole slide images predicts induction chemotherapy response and survival in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Hou, J.; Yi, X.; Li, C.; Li, J.; Cao, H.; Lu, Q.; Yu, X.

2026-04-11 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350350 medRxiv
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Predicting response to induction chemotherapy (IC) and overall survival (OS) is critical for optimizing treatment in patients with locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC). This study aimed to develop and validate a multi-task deep learning model integrating pretreatment MRI and whole slide images (WSIs) to predict IC response and OS in LANPC. Pretreatment MRI and WSIs from 404 patients with LANPC were retrospectively collected to construct a multi-task model (MoEMIL) for the simultaneous prediction of early IC response and OS. MoEMIL employed multi-instance learning to process WSIs, PyRadiomics and a convolutional neural network (ResNet50) to extract MRI features, and fused multimodal features through a multi-gate mixture-of-experts architecture. Clustering-constrained attention multiple instance learning and gradient-weighted class activation mapping were applied for visualization and interpretation. MoEMIL effectively stratified patients into good and poor IC response groups, achieving areas under the curve of 0.917, 0.869, and 0.801 in the train, validation, and test sets, respectively, and outperformed the deep learning radiomics model, the pathomics model and TNM staging. The model also stratified patients into high- and low-risk OS groups (P < 0.05). MoEMIL shows promise as a decision-support tool for early IC response prediction and prognostication in LANPC. Author SummaryWe have developed a deep learning model that integrates two types of medical images, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and digital pathological slices, to simultaneously predict response to induction chemotherapy and prognosis in patients with locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Current treatment decisions primarily rely on traditional tumor staging (TNM), which often fails to comprehensively reflect the complexity of the disease. Our model, named MoEMIL, was trained and tested on data from 404 patients across two hospitals and consistently outperformed both single-model approaches and TNM staging methods. By identifying patients who exhibit poor response to induction chemotherapy or higher prognostic risk, our tool can assist clinicians in achieving personalized treatment, enabling intensified management for high-risk patients and avoiding unnecessary side effects for low-risk patients. Additionally, we visualize the models reasoning process through heat map generation, which highlights the image regions exerting the greatest influence on prediction outcomes. This work represents a step toward more precise treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma; however, larger-scale prospective studies are required before the model can be integrated into routine clinical practice.

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Pneumonia Detection in Paediatric Chest X-Rays using Ensembled Large Language Models

Tan, J.; Tang, P. H.

2026-04-12 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.04.10.26347909 medRxiv
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Background: Paediatric pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. Chest X-rays (CXR) are an important diagnostic tool in the diagnosis of pneumonia, but shortages in specialist radiology services lead to clinically significant delays in CXR reporting. The ability to communicate findings both to clinicians and laypersons allows MLLMs to be deployed throughout clinical workflows, from image analysis to patient communication. However, MLLMs currently underperform state-of-the-art deep learning classifiers. Objective: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of ensemble strategies with MLLMs compared to the baseline average agent for paediatric radiological pneumonia detection. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using paediatric CXRs from two independent hospital datasets totalling 2300 CXRs. Fifteen MedGemma-4B-it agents independently classified each CXR into five pneumonia likelihood categories. Majority voting, soft voting, and GPTOSS-20B aggregation were compared against the average agent performance. The primary metric evaluated was OvR AUROC. Secondary metrics included accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, Cohen's kappa, and OvO AUROC. Results: Soft voting achieved improvements in OvR AUROC (p_balanced = 0.0002, p_real-world = 0.0003), accuracy (p_balanced = 0.0008, p_real-world < 0.0001), Cohen's Kappa (p_balanced = 0.0006, p_real-world = 0.0054) and OvO AUROC (p_balanced < 0.0001, p_real-world = 0.0011) across both datasets, and a superior F1-value (pbalanced = 0.0028) for the balanced dataset. Conclusion: Soft voting enhances MedGemma's diagnostic discriminatory performance for paediatric radiological pneumonia detection. Our system enables privacy-preserving, near real-time clinical decision support with explainable outputs, having potential for integration into emergency departments. Our system's high specificity supports triage by flagging high-risk radiological pneumonia cases.

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Virtual Spectral Decomposition with Dendritic Tile Selection: An Explainable AI Framework for Multimodal Tissue Composition Analysis and Immune Phenotyping Across Pancreatic, Lung, and Breast Cancer

Chandra, S.

2026-04-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350689 medRxiv
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Background: Current deep learning models in computational pathology, radiology, and digital pathology produce opaque predictions that lack the explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) capabilities required for clinical adoption. Despite achieving radiologist-level performance in tasks from whole-slide image (WSI) classification to mammographic screening, these models function as black boxes: clinicians cannot trace predictions to specific biological features, verify outputs against established morphological criteria, or integrate AI reasoning into precision oncology workflows and tumor board decision-making. Methods: We present Virtual Spectral Decomposition (VSD), a modality-agnostic, interpretable-by-design framework that decomposes medical images into six biologically interpretable tissue composition channels using sigmoid threshold functions - the same mathematical structure as CT windowing. Unlike post-hoc xAI methods (Grad-CAM, SHAP, LIME) applied to black-box deep learning models, VSD channels have pre-defined biological meanings derived from tissue physics, providing inherent explainability without sacrificing quantitative rigor. For whole-slide image (WSI) analysis in digital pathology, we introduce the dendritic tile selection algorithm, a biologically-inspired hierarchical architecture achieving 70-80% computational reduction while preferentially sampling the tumor immune microenvironment. VSD is validated across three cancer types and imaging modalities: pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) on CT imaging, lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) on H&E-stained pathology slides using TCGA data, and breast cancer on screening mammography. Composition entropy of the six-channel vector is computed as a visual Biological Entropy Index (vBEI) - an imaging biomarker quantifying the diversity of active biological defense systems. Results: In pancreatic cancer, the fat-to-stroma ratio (a novel CT-derived radiomics biomarker) declines from >5.0 (normal) to <0.5 (advanced PDAC), enabling early detection of desmoplastic invasion before mass formation on standard imaging. In lung cancer, composition entropy from H&E whole-slide images correlates with tumor immune microenvironment markers from RNA-seq (CD3: rho=+0.57, p=0.009; CD8: rho=+0.54, p=0.015; PD-1: rho=+0.54, p=0.013) and predicts overall survival (low entropy immune-desert phenotype: 71% mortality vs 29%, p=0.032; n=20 TCGA-LUAD), providing immune phenotyping for checkpoint immunotherapy patient selection from a $5 H&E slide without molecular assays. In breast cancer, each lesion type produces a characteristic six-channel fingerprint functioning as an interpretable computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system for quantitative BI-RADS assessment and subtype classification (IDC vs ILC vs DCIS vs IBC). A five-level xAI audit trail provides complete traceability from clinical decision support output to specific biological structures visible on the original images. Conclusion: VSD establishes a unified, interpretable-by-design mathematical framework for explainable tissue composition analysis across imaging modalities and cancer types. Unlike black-box deep learning and post-hoc xAI approaches, VSD provides inherently interpretable, clinically verifiable cancer detection and immune phenotyping from standard clinical imaging at existing costs - without requiring foundation model infrastructure, specialized hardware, or molecular assays. The open-source pipeline (Google Colab, Supplementary Material) enables immediate reproducibility and extension to additional cancer types across the pan-cancer TCGA atlas.

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Probabilistic Cerebral Blood Flow Trajectories Across the Adult Lifespan Using Quantitative Water PET

Johansson, J.; Palonen, S.; Egorova, K.; Tuisku, J.; Harju, H.; Kärpijoki, H.; Maaniitty, T.; Saraste, A.; Saari, T.; Tuomola, N.; Rinne, J.; Nuutila, P.; Latva-Rasku, A.; Virtanen, K. A.; Knuuti, J.; Nummenmaa, L.

2026-04-11 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350393 medRxiv
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BackgroundQuantitative cerebral blood flow (CBF) measured with [15O]water positron emission tomography (PET) is the reference standard for quantifying brain perfusion. However, clinical interpretation of individual CBF measurements is limited by the absence of large normative datasets accounting for physiological variability across the adult lifespan. Long-axial field-of-view PET enables high-sensitivity quantitative [15O]water perfusion imaging without arterial blood sampling, allowing normative characterization of cerebral perfusion at unprecedented scale. The aim of this study was to establish normative and covariate-adjusted models of cerebral blood flow across the adult lifespan using total-body [15O]water PET. MethodsQuantitative CBF measurements were obtained in 302 neurologically healthy adults (age 21-86 years) using total-body [15O]water PET. Linear mixed-effects models were used to evaluate the effects of age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and blood hemoglobin concentration on CBF and to generate normative prediction models across the adult lifespan. Between-subject and within-subject variability were estimated from repeated scans in a subset of participants (n=51). ResultsMean grey matter CBF was 46.1 mL/(min*dL), with substantial inter-individual variability but high within-subject reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficients 0.78-0.89). Advancing age was associated with a decline in CBF of approximately 7% per decade (p_FDR < 10-12). Higher BMI was associated with lower CBF (approximately -6% per 10 kg/m2; p_FDR < 0.01). Women exhibited higher CBF than men (approximately 7.5%), but this difference was largely explained by lower blood hemoglobin concentration in women. Covariate-adjusted models were used to generate normative predictions and prediction intervals describing expected CBF across adulthood. ConclusionThis study establishes a normative database of quantitative cerebral blood flow across the adult lifespan using high-sensitivity [15O]water PET. Age, BMI, and hemoglobin are major determinants of inter-individual variability in CBF. The resulting generative models provide a quantitative reference framework for interpreting cerebral perfusion measurements and may enable automated detection of abnormal brain perfusion in clinical PET imaging.

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Automated Detection of Dental Caries and Bone Loss on Periapical and Bitewing Radiographs using a YOLO Based Deep Learning Model

Alqaderi, H.; Kapadia, U.; Brahmbhatt, Y.; Papathanasiou, A.; Rodgers, D.; Arsenault, P.; Cardarelli, J.; Zavras, A.; Li, H.

2026-04-17 dentistry and oral medicine 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350726 medRxiv
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BackgroundDental caries and periodontal disease represent the most prevalent global oral health conditions, collectively affecting several billion people. The diagnostic interpretation of dental radiographs, a cornerstone of modern dentistry, is associated with considerable inter-observer variability. In routine clinical practice, clinicians are required to evaluate a high volume of radiographic images daily, a cognitively demanding task in which diagnostic fatigue, time constraints, and the inherent complexity of overlapping anatomical structures can lead to the inadvertent oversight of early-stage pathologies. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers a transformative opportunity to augment clinical decision-making by providing rapid, objective, and consistent radiographic analysis, thereby serving as a tireless adjunct capable of flagging findings that may be missed during routine human inspection. MethodsThis study developed and validated a deep learning system for the automated detection of dental caries and alveolar bone loss using a dataset of 1,063 periapical and bitewing radiographs. Two separate YOLOv8s object detection models were trained and evaluated using a rigorous 5-fold cross-validation methodology. To align with the clinical use-case of a screening tool where high sensitivity is paramount, a custom image-level evaluation criterion was employed: a true positive was recorded if any predicted bounding box had a Jaccard Index (IoU) > 0 with any ground truth annotation. Model performance was systematically evaluated at confidence thresholds of 0.10 and 0.05. ResultsAt a confidence threshold of 0.05, the caries detection model achieved a mean precision of 84.41% ({+/-}0.72%), recall of 85.97% ({+/-}4.72%), and an F1-score of 85.13% ({+/-}2.61%). The alveolar bone loss model demonstrated exceptionally high performance, with a mean precision of 95.47% ({+/-}0.94%), recall of 98.60% ({+/-}0.49%), and an F1-score of 97.00% ({+/-}0.46%). ConclusionThe YOLOv8-based models demonstrated high accuracy and high sensitivity for detecting dental caries and alveolar bone loss on periapical radiographs. The system shows significant potential as a reliable automated assistant for dental practitioners, helping to improve diagnostic consistency, reduce the risk of missed pathology, and ultimately enhance the standard of patient care.

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Normal is All You Need: A Symmetry-Informed Inverse Learning Foundation Model for Neuroimaging Diagnostics

Wang, S.; Ayubcha, C.; Hua, Y.; Beam, A.

2026-04-12 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350553 medRxiv
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Background: Developing generalizable neuroimaging models is often hindered by limited labeled data which has led to an increased interest in unsupervised inverse learning. Existing approaches often neglect geometric principles and struggle with diverse pathologies. We propose a symmetry-informed inverse learning foundation model to address these shortcomings for robust and efficient anomaly detection in brain MRI. Methods: Our framework employs a reconstruction-to-embedding pipeline, trained exclusively on healthy brain MRI slices. A 2D U-Net uses a novel, symmetry-aware masking strategy to reconstruct a disorder-free slice. Difference maps are embedded into a 1024-dimensional latent space via a Beta-VAE. Anomaly scoring is performed using Mahalanobis distance. We evaluated generalization by fine-tuning on external lesion datasets, BraTS Africa (SSA), and the ADNI-derived Alzheimer disease cohort (Alz). Results: On the source metastasis (Mets) dataset, the framework achieved high performance (AB1+MSE: 99.28% accuracy, 99.79% sensitivity). Generalization to the external lesion dataset (SSA) was robust, with the Symmetry ROC configuration achieving 91.93% accuracy. Transfer to the Alzheimer dataset (Alz) was more challenging, achieving a peak accuracy of 70.54% with a high false-positive rate, suggesting difficulty in separating subtle, diffuse changes. Conclusion: The symmetry-informed inverse learning framework establishes a robust foundation model for neuroimaging, showing strong performance for focal lesions and successful generalization under domain shift. Limitations in diffuse neurodegeneration underscore the necessity for richer representations and multimodal integration to improve future foundation models.

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AENEAS Project: First real-time intraoperative application of machine vision-based anatomical guidance in neurosurgery

Sarwin, G.; Ricciuti, V.; Staartjes, V. E.; Carretta, A.; Daher, N.; Li, Z.; Regli, L.; Mazzatenta, D.; Zoli, M.; Seungjun, R.; Konukoglu, E.; Serra, C.

2026-04-11 surgery 10.64898/2026.04.09.26348607 medRxiv
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Background and Objectives: We report the first intraoperative deployment of a real-time machine vision system in neurosurgery, derived from our previous anatomical detection work, automatically identifying structures during endoscopic endonasal surgery. Existing systems demonstrate promising performance in offline anatomical recognition, yet so far none have been implemented during live operations. Methods: A real-time anatomy detection model was trained using the YOLOv8 architecture (Ultralytics). Following training completion in the PyTorch environment, the model was exported to ONNX format and further optimized using the NVIDIA TensorRT engine. Deployment was carried out using the NVIDIA Holoscan SDK, the system ran on an NVIDIA Clara AGX developer kit. We used the model for real-time recognition of intraoperative anatomical structures and compared it with the same video labelled manually as reference. Model performance was reported using the average precision at an intersection-over-union threshold of 0.5 (AP50). Furthermore, end-to-end delay from frame acquisition to the display of the annotated output was measured. Results: A mean AP50 of 0.56 was achieved. The model demonstrated reliable detection of the most relevant landmarks in the transsphenoidal corridor. The mean end-to-end latency of the model was 47.81 ms (median 46.57 ms). Conclusion: For the first time, we demonstrate that clinical-grade, real-time machine-vision assistance during neurosurgery is feasible and can provide continuous, automated anatomical guidance from the surgical field. This approach may enhance intraoperative orientation, reduce cognitive load, and offer a powerful tool for surgical training. These findings represent an initial step toward integrating real-time AI support into routine neurosurgical workflows.

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Longitudinal MAP-MRI-based Assessment of Tissue Microstructural Alterations in Acute mTBI

Gangolli, M.; Perkins, N. J.; Marinelli, L.; Basser, P. J.; Avram, A. V.

2026-04-13 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.04.06.26350074 medRxiv
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BACKGROUNDMild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) is a signature injury in civilian and military populations that remains invisible to detection by conventional radiological methods. Diffusion MRI has been identified as a potential clinical tool for revealing subtle microstructural alterations associated with mTBI. OBJECTIVEThis study evaluates whether a comprehensive and powerful diffusion MRI (dMRI) technique called mean apparent propagator (MAP) MRI can detect sequelae of mTBI. METHODSWe analyzed data from 417 participants of the GE/NFL prospective mTBI study which included 143 matched controls (mean age, 21.9 {+/-} 8.3 years; 76 women) and 274 patients with acute mTBI and GCS [&ge;]13 (mean age, 21.9 {+/-} 8.5 years; 131 women). All participants underwent MRI exams at up to four visits including structural high-resolution T1W, T2W, FLAIR-T2W, and dMRI, in addition to clinical assessments of post-concussive physical symptoms (RPQ-3), psychosocial functioning and lifestyle symptoms (RPQ-13), and postural stability (BESS). The dMRI data for each subject were co-registered across all visits and analyzed using the MAP-MRI framework to measure and map the distribution of net microscopic displacements of diffusing water molecules in tissue and ultimately compute the microstructural MAP-MRI tissue parameters including propagator anisotropy (PA), Non-Gaussianity (NG), return-to-origin probability (RTOP), return-to-axis probability (RTAP), and return-to-plane probability (RTPP). We quantified voxel-wise and region-of-interest (ROI)-based changes in these parameters across all four visits. RESULTSMAP-MRI parameter values were within the expected ranges and showed relatively little variation across visits. We found no significant differences in the longitudinal trajectories of these parameters between mTBI patients and controls. At acute post-injury timepoints, RPQ-3 and RPQ-13 scores were increased in mTBI patients relative to controls, while BESS scores were not significantly different between groups. Analysis of dMRI metrics and clinical mTBI markers showed significant correspondence between MAP-MRI metrics in cortical gray matter, caudate and pallidum and BESS scores. CONCLUSIONWe developed and tested a state-of-the-art quantitative image processing pipeline for sensitive analysis and detection of subtle tissue changes in longitudinal clinical diffusion MRI data. The absence of a significant statistical difference between populations in the dMRI parameters in this study suggests that the mTBI corresponded to acute post-injury clinical symptoms but that the injury was not severe enough to cause detectable microstructural damage/alterations, and that increased diffusion sensitization combined with improved analysis techniques may be needed. CLINICAL IMPACTThese findings suggest that acute mTBI (GCS[&ge;]13) may not be detectable with diffusion MRI. TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02556177

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Trade-offs in emergency transport protocols for access to hip fracture management: a geospatial analysis of selective versus standard transfer in Ontario long-term care

Yee, N. J.; Chen, T.; Huang, Y. Q.; Whyne, C.; Halai, M.

2026-04-14 orthopedics 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350713 medRxiv
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Objectives: For suspected hip fractures, prehospital protocols directing patients to an orthopaedic centre rather than the nearest emergency department (ED) could reduce time-to-surgery but may impact EMS travel burden. This study evaluates the impact of transfer protocols by quantifying transport to hospitals from long term care (LTC) facilities across Ontario. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of all Ontario LTC facilities and hospitals was performed. Two protocols were modeled: standard transfer to the nearest ED with subsequent transfer if required, and selective transfer based on Collingwood Hip Fracture Rule prehospital screening1 directly to the nearest orthopaedic services (orthoED). Median one-way travel distances were calculated from Google Maps. Results: In Ontario, 15.4% of LTC residents require hospital destination decisions because their nearest ED lacks orthopaedic services; for these facilities, median distances were 2.7km to the ED and 36.0km to the orthoED. Among the 52 LTC facilities where selective transfer was distance-optimal, it substantially reduced travel for patients with hip fracture (31.1km vs 49.6km; P<.01) while only modestly increasing travel for patients without hip fracture. Where standard transfer was distance-optimal, little travel difference was noted for patients with hip fracture, however false positive screened patients traveled significantly further to an orthoED. Greatest negative consequences of selective transfer lie in the 1.3% of residents living farthest (>100km) from an orthoED. Conclusions: EMS direct transportation to hospitals with orthopaedics may improve hip fracture care but can increase EMS burden due to patients identified falsely as having a hip fracture, particularly in remote communities.

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CTA versus TOF-MRA for circle of Willis segmentation: Implications for hemodynamic modelling

Vikström, A.; Zarrinkoob, L.; Johannesdottir, M.; Wahlin, A.; Hellström, J.; Appelblad, M.; Holmlund, P.

2026-04-11 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350583 medRxiv
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Modelling of hemodynamics in the circle of Willis (CoW) depends on vascular segmentation, which may vary based on imaging modality. Computed tomography angiography (CTA) is commonly used in clinic but involves radiation and injection of contrast agents, whereas magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) offers a non-invasive alternative. This study aims to compare CoW morphology and modelled cerebral perfusion pressure of CTA and MRA segmentations, validating if MRA can replace CTA in modelling workflows. CTA and time-of-flight MRA (TOF-MRA) of the CoW was performed in 19 patients undergoing elective aortic arch surgery (67{+/-}7 years, 8 women). The CoW was semi-automatically segmented based on signal intensity thresholding. A TOF-MRA threshold was optimized against the CTA segmentation, using the CTA as reference standard. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling with boundary conditions based on subject-specific flow rates from 4D flow MRI simulated cerebral perfusion pressure in the segmented geometries. A baseline simulation and a unilateral brain inflow simulation, i.e., occlusion of a carotid, were carried out. Linear mixed models indicated there was no effect of choice of modality on either average arterial lumen area (CTA - TOF-MRA: -0.2{+/-}1.3 mm2; p=0.762) or baseline pressure drops (0.2{+/-}1.9 mmHg; p=0.257). In the unilateral inflow simulation, we found no difference in pressure laterality (-6.6{+/-}18.4 mmHg; p=0.185) or collateral flow rate (10{+/-}46 ml/min; p=0.421). TOF-MRA geometries can with signal intensity thresholding be matched to produce similar morphology and modelled cerebral perfusion pressure to CTA geometries. The modelled pressure drops over the collateral arteries were sensitive to the segmentation regardless of modality.

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Hidden risk in normal myocardial perfusion scans: AI-detected proximal coronary calcium on CT attenuation maps improves prognosis

Zhou, J.; Miller, R. J.; Shanbhag, A.; Killekar, A.; Han, D.; Patel, K. K.; Pieszko, K.; Yi, J.; Urs, M. K.; Ramirez, G.; Lemley, M.; Kavanagh, P. B.; Liang, J. X.; Kamagate, A.; Builoff, V.; Einstein, A. J.; Feher, A.; Miller, E. J.; Sinusas, A. J.; Ruddy, T. D.; Knight, S.; Le, V. T.; Mason, S.; Chareonthaitawee, P.; Wopperer, S.; Alexanderson, E.; Carvajal-Juarez, I.; Rosamond, T. L.; Slipczuk, L.; Travin, M. I.; Packard, R. R.; Acampa, W.; Al-Mallah, M.; deKemp, R. A.; Buechel, R. R.; Berman, D. S.; Dey, D.; Di Carli, M. F.; Slomka, P. J.

2026-04-15 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.14.26350808 medRxiv
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Purpose: Spatial distribution of coronary artery calcium (CAC) may provide additional prognostic value in patients undergoing SPECT and PET myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI). We aimed to automatically identify CAC in proximal segments from attenuation correction CT (CTAC) scans using artificial intelligence (AI) and to evaluate prognostic significance in two large international multicenter registries. Methods: From hybrid MPI/CT imaging (N=43,099) across 15 sites, we included 4,552 most relevant patients with 1) no prior coronary artery disease; 2) AI-derived mild CAC scores (1-99); and 3) normal perfusion (stress total perfusion deficit <5%). The independent associations between AI-identified proximal CAC and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM) were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression, likelihood ratio test (LRT), and continuous net reclassification index (NRI). Results: Among the patients with mild CAC and normal perfusion (mean age 65{+/-}12 years, 51% male), 1,730 (38%) had proximal CAC. Over 3.6 (inter-quartile interval 2.1, 5.2) years follow up, 599 (13%) and 444 (10%) patients had MACE or ACM, respectively. Proximal CAC was associated with an increased risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.03-1.48, P=0.02) and ACM (adjusted HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.01-1.53, P=0.04) after the adjustment of CAC score and density, clinical risk factors, and perfusion deficit. Proximal CAC improved the risk stratification of MACE (LRT P=0.02; NRI 12%) and ACM (LRT P=0.04; NRI 12%). Conclusion: In patients with mild CAC and normal perfusion, AI detection of proximal CAC identified a higher-risk group for adverse outcomes, highlighting its prognostic utility.

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VIsual STAndardized Quantification of LGE (VISTAQ), a contour-less method for late gadolinium enhancement quantification

Aquaro, G. D.; Licordari, R.; De Gori, C.; Todiere, G.; Ianni, U.; Barison, A.; De Luca, A.; Folgheraiter, a.; Grigoratos, C.; alberti, m.; lombardo, m.; De Caterina, R.; Sinagra, G.; Emdin, M.; Di Bella, G.; fulceri, l.

2026-04-15 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350552 medRxiv
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Background: Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) quantification by cardiovascular magnetic resonance is central to risk stratification in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), yet conventional techniques require contour tracing and region-of-interest (ROI) placement, which may reduce reproducibility and increase analysis time. We developed a novel visual standardized approach, the Visual Standardized Quantification of LGE (VISTAQ), that does not require myocardial contouring, arbitrary ROI positioning, or dedicated post-processing software. Methods: In this multicenter, multivendor retrospective study, LGE images from 400 patients (100 prior myocardial infarction, 250 HCM, 50 other non-ischemic heart diseases) were analyzed. VISTAQ subdivides each myocardial segment into transmural mini-segments and classifies LGE visually using predefined criteria, expressing global LGE burden as the percentage of positive mini-segments. Reproducibility was assessed in 250 patients across different observer expertise levels using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland?Altman analysis. In 100 HCM patients, VISTAQ was compared with conventional methods (mean+2SD, +5SD, +6SD, FWHM, visual thresholding). Prognostic performance was evaluated in 250 HCM patients over a median 5-year follow-up. Results: VISTAQ demonstrated excellent intra- and inter-observer reproducibility (ICC up to 0.98 and 0.97, respectively), consistent across disease subtypes. Compared with conventional techniques, VISTAQ showed similar ICC to FWHM but significantly lower net and absolute inter-observer differences (median absolute difference 1.3%). Mean+2SD markedly overestimated LGE, whereas mean+6SD slightly underestimated LGE compared with VISTAQ, mean+5SD, FWHM, and visual thresholding. Analysis time was substantially shorter with VISTAQ (median 105 vs. 375 seconds, p<0.0001). During follow-up, 21 hard cardiac events occurred in HCM population. An LGE threshold >10% predicted events with higher accuracy using VISTAQ (AUC 0.90; sensitivity 85%; specificity 94%) compared with mean+6SD (AUC 0.75; sensitivity 57%; specificity 93%). Conclusions: VISTAQ provides highly reproducible, time-efficient LGE quantification without dedicated software and demonstrates non-inferior prognostic discrimination in HCM compared with conventional threshold-based techniques.

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A clinicoradiological model for preoperative prediction of lateral lymph node metastasis in rectal cancer

Shen, Q.; Wang, G.; Fu, M.; Yao, K.; Yang, Y.; Zeng, Q.; Guo, Y.

2026-04-15 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.04.13.26350816 medRxiv
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Background: Lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is associated with poor prognosis in patients with rectal cancer and may influence the indication for lateral lymph node dissection. Accurate preoperative identification of LLNM remains challenging. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a clinicoradiological model for preoperative prediction of LLNM in rectal cancer. Methods A retrospective cohort of 64 patients undergoing lateral lymph node dissection (LLND) for rectal cancer was analysed; 21 (32.8%) had pathological lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM). A prespecified preoperative clinicoradiological model was fitted using penalised logistic regression with L2 regularisation (ridge), incorporating MRI-measured lateral lymph node short-axis diameter (LLN-SAD), dichotomised clinical T stage (T3-4 vs T1-2), dichotomised clinical N stage (N+ vs N0), and log(CA19-9+1). Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration analysis, and bootstrap internal validation. Results The model showed good discrimination (AUC 0.914), with an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.887 on bootstrap validation. Calibration remained acceptable after optimism correction (calibration intercept -0.127; slope 1.045). Decision curve analysis suggested net benefit across clinically relevant threshold probabilities, particularly between 0.10 and 0.30. The model was implemented as a web-based calculator to facilitate clinical use. Conclusion This clinicoradiological model showed good discrimination, acceptable calibration, and potential clinical utility for preoperative assessment of LLNM risk in rectal cancer. It may assist individualized risk stratification and treatment planning, although external validation is required before routine clinical implementation.

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Algorithm-Based Model for Gastrointestinal and Liver Histopathological Analysis Using VGG16 and Specialized Stains: Statistical Validation of Thresholds in AI-Driven Digital Pathology

Adeluwoye, A. O.; Gbadegesin, M. O.; James, F. M.; Otegbade, P. S.; Alabetutu, A.

2026-04-11 pathology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350456 medRxiv
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Digital pathology, coupled with advanced image recognition algorithms, represents a transformative frontier in histopathological diagnosis. This sub-Saharan African laboratorys exploratory study investigates the application of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model, specifically leveraging the VGG16 architecture with transfer learning, for automated analysis and classification of selected gastrointestinal (GIT) and liver tissue samples, incorporating both routine and specialized staining protocols. The study utilized a dataset comprising 114 samples (18 liver, 96 GIT images) derived from archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks at University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. Specialized staining techniques included Alcian Yellow for GIT mucin visualization and Massons Trichrome for liver fibrosis assessment, alongside conventional H&E staining. Model performance was evaluated using statistical methodologies including Wilson Score confidence intervals (CI), Bayesian probability assessment, and effect size analysis. Results reveal a striking dichotomy in model performance. The GIT tissue model achieved perfect classification accuracy (100% test accuracy) with exceptional statistical significance (Z=10.0, p<0.0001), Wilson CI [96.29%, 99.99%], Cohens h=1.571, and Bayesian probability >99.99%. Conversely, the liver tissue model demonstrated diagnostic failure (42.86% test accuracy), with Z=-1.428, p=0.9236, Wilson CI [33.59%, 52.65%], Cohens h=-0.144, and Bayesian probability of 7.64%. This performance divergence correlates with training data availability, as the liver dataset fell far below empirically established thresholds (>100-200 samples) for reliable classification. The liver models failure reveals limitations in transfer learning with insufficient data. These findings underscore critical implications for AI-enhanced digital pathology, demonstrating potential deployment of the GIT model as a promising one that supports tissue-specific model development.

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SARS-CoV-2 Introductions into Lao PDR Revealed by Genomic Surveillance, 2021-2024

Panapruksachat, S.; Troupin, C.; Souksavanh, M.; Keeratipusana, C.; Vongsouvath, M.; Vongphachanh, S.; Vongsouvath, M.; Phommasone, K.; Somlor, S.; Robinson, M. T.; Chookajorn, T.; Kochakarn, T.; Day, N. P.; Mayxay, M.; Letizia, A. G.; Dubot-Peres, A.; Ashley, E. A.; Buchy, P.; Xangsayarath, P.; Batty, E. M.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26349480 medRxiv
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We used 2492 whole genome sequences from Laos to investigate the molecular epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 from 2021 through 2024, covering the major waves of COVID-19 disease in Laos including time periods of travel restrictions and after relaxation of travel across international borders. We identify successive waves of COVID-19 caused by shifts in the dominant lineage, beginning with the Alpha variant in April 2021 and continuing through the Delta and Omicron variants. We quantify a shift from a small number of viral introductions responsible for widespread transmission in early waves to a larger number of introductions for each variant after travel restrictions were lifted, and identify potential routes of introduction into the country. Our study underscores the importance of genomic surveillance to public health responses to characterize viral transmission dynamics during pandemics.

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WITHDRAWN: Detection of Measles Virus RNA in Wastewater: Monitoring for Wild-Type and Vaccine-Derived Strains in a National Preparedness Trial

Ahmed, W.; Gebrewold, M.; Verhagen, R.; Koh, M.; Gazeley, J.; Levy, A.; Simpson, S.; Nolan, M.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350527 medRxiv
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Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is established as a vital tool for monitoring polio and SARS-CoV-2 with potential to improve surveillance for many other infectious diseases. This study evaluated the feasibility of detecting measles virus (MeV) RNA in wastewater as part of a national WS preparedness trial in Brisbane, Australia, from March to June 2025. Composite and passive sampling methods were employed in parallel at three wastewater treatment plants serving populations between 230,000 and 584,000. Nucleic acids were extracted and analyzed using RT-qPCR targeting MeV N and M genes to distinguish wild-type and vaccine strains. MeV RNA were detected in both 24-hour composite and passive samples on May 26 to 27, 2025 from the largest catchment of 584,000 which also included an international airport. No measles cases were reported in this city or region within 4 weeks of the WS detections. These were confirmed as vaccine-derived measles virus (MeVV) strain via specific RT-qPCR assay. Extraction recoveries varied (11.5% to 70.5%), with passive sampling showing higher efficiency. This is the first report of use of passive samples for detection of MeV. These findings are consistent with other studies reporting WWS results of both MeVV genotype A and wild type genotype B and/or D. It demonstrates the potential for sensitive MeV WWS with rapid differentiation of MeVV from wild type MeV shedding, including in airport transport hubs and with different sample types. Use of WWS could strengthen measles surveillance by enabling rapid detection of MeV RNA and supporting outbreak preparedness and response. This requires optimised methods which are specific to or differentiate wild-type MeV from MeVV. Furthermore, the successful detection of MeV using passive sampling in this study highlights its potential for deployment in diverse global contexts which may include non-sewered settings.

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Time to diagnosis among children and adolescents with cancer in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study

Mullen, C.; Barr, R. D.; Strumpf, E.; El-Zein, M.; Franco, E. L.; Malagon, T.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350491 medRxiv
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BackgroundTimely cancer diagnosis in children and adolescents is critical to improving outcomes, yet substantial variation in diagnostic intervals persists across cancer types and care settings. We aimed to quantify time to diagnosis and assess variations by patient, demographic, and system-level factors. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective population-based study of children and adolescents aged 0-19 years diagnosed with one of 12 common cancers between 2010 and 2022 in Quebec, Canada. The diagnostic interval was defined as the time from first cancer-related healthcare encounter to diagnosis. We calculated medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) overall and by cancer type and used multivariable quantile regression to identify factors associated with time to diagnosis at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles. ResultsAmong 2,927 individuals with cancer, diagnostic intervals varied by cancer type and age. Median intervals were longest for carcinomas (100 days; IQR 33-192) and shortest for leukemias (8 days; IQR 3-44). Compared with children living in Montreal, living in regional areas and other large urban centres was associated with longer 50th and 75th percentiles of time to diagnosis for hepatic and central nervous system (CNS) tumours. Diagnostic intervals were shorter in the post-pandemic period (2020-2022) across several cancer sites, with CNS tumours showing reductions across all quantiles. InterpretationDiagnostic timeliness differed by cancer type, age, and rurality, but not by sex, material, or social deprivation. The shorter diagnostic intervals observed in the post-pandemic period suggest that pandemic-related changes in care pathways may have expedited diagnosis for some cancers.

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Frequency of bacterial STI testing amongst people accessing sexual health services in England, 2024: a cross-sectional analysis of national surveillance data

Baldry, G.; Harb, A.-K.; Findlater, L.; Ogaz, D.; Migchelsen, S. J.; Fifer, H.; Saunders, J.; Mohammed, H.; Sinka, K.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.08.26349546 medRxiv
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ObjectivesWe determined the frequency of sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing among people accessing sexual health services (SHS) in England. MethodsWe assessed STI testing frequency in face-to-face and online SHSs in England using data from the GUMCAD STI surveillance system. We quantified different combinations of tests (e.g. single chlamydia test or full STI screen), number of tests completed in 2024 and test positivity by sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics, as well as clinical setting and outcomes. ResultsOverall, there were 2,222,028 attendances at SHS in England in 2024 that involved tests for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis and/or HIV. Most of these attendances involved tests for all four of these STIs. Most people accessing SHS in England tested once (80.1%), and a small minority (1.9%) tested at least quarterly (4+ times). Some groups had a comparably larger proportion of quarterly testers; these included gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) (6.7%), London residents (3.6%), online testers (2.5%), people using HIV-PrEP (13%), and people with 5+ partners in the previous 3 months (10.6%). Only 10.5% of GBMSM reporting higher-risk sexual behaviours tested quarterly despite recommendations for quarterly testing in this group. ConclusionsThe majority of those who tested for STIs in England in 2024 only tested once. The minority who tested at least quarterly had a higher proportion of GBMSM, people using HIV-PrEP, London residents and people reporting higher risk behaviours. Quarterly testing often appears to be aligned with current testing recommendations in England; however, we also observed that only a low proportion of behaviourally high-risk GBMSM and HIV-PrEP users are meeting these recommendations. It is important to acknowledge groups with lower or higher testing frequency when developing interventions and updating guidelines related to STI testing. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPICThe effectiveness of asymptomatic testing for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), and the potential impact of the consequent increased antibiotic use on rising antimicrobial resistance and individual harm has recently been questioned. Testing and treatment remains a key pillar of STI prevention and management; despite this, there is limited evidence of STI testing frequency within sexual services (SHS) on a national level. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDSThis analysis shows that the majority of people attending SHSs in England in 2024 tested once, and only a small proportion of behaviourally high-risk people tested frequently. HOW THIS STUDY MIGHT AFFECT RESEARCH, PRACTICE OR POLICYAwareness of groups that are behaviourally high risk but testing infrequently is important to guide interventions and messaging regarding STI testing. The low levels of frequent testing, even among those who would be recommended quarterly testing under UK guidelines, provides important context for wider discussion around asymptomatic STI screening.

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Wearable-derived physiological features for trans-diagnostic disease comparison and classification in the All of Us longitudinal real-world dataset

Huang, X.; Hsieh, C.; Nguyen, Q.; Renteria, M. E.; Gharahkhani, P.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350352 medRxiv
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Wearable-derived physiological features have been associated with disease risk, but most current studies focus on single conditions, limiting understanding of cross-disease patterns. This study adopts a trans-diagnostic approach to examine whether wearable data capture shared and condition-specific physiological signatures across multiple chronic conditions spanning physical and mental health, and then evaluates the utility of these features for disease classification. A total of 9,301 patients with at least 21 days of consecutive FitBit data from the All of Us Controlled Tier Dataset version 8 were analyzed. Disease subcohorts included cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), major depressive disorder (MDD), anxiety, bipolar disorder, and attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), chosen based on prevalence and relevance. Logistic regression and XGBoost models were fitted for each disease subcohort versus the control cohort. We found that compared to using just baseline demographic and lifestyle features, incorporating wearable-derived features enabled improved classification performance in all subcohorts for both models, except for ADHD where improvement was mainly observed for ROC-AUC in logistic regression model likely due to the smaller sample size in ADHD subcohort. The largest performance gains were observed in MDD (increase in ROC-AUC of 0.077 for Logistic regression, 0.071 for XGBoost; p < 0.001) and anxiety (increase in ROC-AUC of 0.077 for logistic regression, 0.108 for XGBoost; p < 0.001). This study provides one of the first comprehensive transdiagnostic evaluations of wearable-derived features for disease classification, highlighting their potential to enhance risk stratification in the real-world setting as a practical complement to clinical assessments and providing a foundation to explore more fine-grained wearable data. Author summaryWearable devices such as fitness trackers and smartwatches are becoming increasingly popular and affordable, providing continuous measurements of heart rate, physical activity, and sleep. Alongside the growing digitization of health records, this creates new opportunities for large-scale, real-world health studies. In this study, we analyzed wearable-derived physiological patterns across a range of chronic conditions spanning both physical and mental health to better understand how these signals relate to disease risk. We found that incorporating wearable-derived heart rate, activity and sleep features improved disease risk classification across several conditions, with particularly strong gains for major depressive disorder and anxiety. By examining how individual features contributed to model predictions, we also identified meaningful associations between physiological signals and disease risk. For example, both duration and day-to-day variation of deep and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep were associated with increased risk in certain conditions. Our study supports the development of real-time, automated tools to assess disease risk alongside clinical care.